USD/CAD, AUD/USD Near-term Technical Setups

Near-term Technical Outlook: Trade Setups on USD/CAD & AUD/USD

  • Technical charts on trade setup we’ve been tracking in USD/CAD & AUD/USD
  • US Dollar threatens larger reversal vs Canadian dollar while above 1.2575
  • Australian Dollar exhaustion risks deeper setback while below 7871

An update on trade setups we’ve been tracking inthe Canadian Dollar & Australian Dollar. These are the targets and invalidation levels that heading into the close of the week.Review my latest Strategy Webinar for an in-depth breakdown of thesetrade setups and more.

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Canadian Dollar Price Chart – USD/CAD 240min

Canadian Dollar Price Chart - USD/CAD 240min - Loonie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; USD/CAD on Tradingview

In last month’s Canadian Dollar Price Outlook we noted that USD/CAD was testing major support into the close of February, “with a weekly close below 1.2579 needed to keep the short-bias viable in the days ahead.” Price failed to mark a weekly close below this threshold with the pullback marking an outside-day reversal off the lows last week. The focus is once again on support here at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent rally / 2018 yearly open at 1.2575/79 backed by the April 2018 low / lower parallel near 1.2527– looking for downside exhaustion ahead of this region IF price is indeed heading higher with a breach above resistance at 1.2713/23 exposing subsequent topside objectives at 1.2785/93 and the yearly range highs at 1.2881. Review my latest Canadian Dollar Weekly Price Outlook for a closer look at the longer-term USD/CAD technical trading levels.

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment – USD/CAD Price Chart

Canadian Dollar Trader Sentiment - USD/CAD Price Chart - Loonie Retail Positioning

  • A summary of Finance Prop Client Sentiment shows traders are net-short USD/CAD – the ratio stands at 1.92 (65.7% of traders are long) –typically bearish reading
  • Long positions are 1.01% higher than yesterday and 8.50% lower from last week
  • Short positions are 2.80% lower than yesterday and 26.44% higher from last week
  • We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USD/CAD prices may continue to fall. Traders are more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week and the combination of current positioning and recent changes gives us a further mixed USD/CAD trading bias from a sentiment standpoint.

Data provided by

of clients are net long.

of clients are net short.

Change in Longs Shorts OI
Daily -8% -12% -9%
Weekly 5% 6% 6%

Learn how shifts in USD/CAD retail positioning impact trend

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Australian Dollar Price Chart – AUD/USD 240min

Australian Dollar Price Chart - AUD/USD 240min - Aussie Trade Outlook - Technical Forecast

Chart Prepared by Michael Boutros, Technical Strategist; AUD/USD on Tradingview

Last week we noted that the recent AUD/USD breakout looked vulnerable as the rally showed signs of exhaustion into the close of February trade. An outside-day reversal off the highs (and an outside-weekly reversal) further highlighted the threat for a deeper pullback into the March open.

A weekly opening-range has been set just above the March open at 7710 and below the 7801/37 resistance zone. We’re looking for the break for guidance with the broader threat for a deeper correction while below the yearly high-day close at 7871. A break lower from here exposes 7659 backed by 7618/35– look inflection there with a close below needed to keep the focus on 7563 and the 100% extension at 7523. Review my latest Aussie Weekly Price Outlook for a look at the longer-term AUD/USD technical trade levels.

AUD Forecast

AUD Forecast

Recommended by Michael Boutros

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For a complete breakdown of Michael’s trading strategy, review his Foundations of Technical Analysis series on Building a Trading Strategy

-Written by Michael Boutros, Currency Strategist with Finance Prop

Follow Michaelon Twitter @MBForex

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Categorized as Forex

By Jonathan Prop

Jonathan Prop is an independent financial advisor. He has been working in finance for the last 20 years. After retiring early in his 40s, Jonathan decided to help others get to grip with financial markets, particularly his area of expertise - forex!

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